Champions League Analysis: Is a Shift in Power Taking Place?

Imagine if the Champions League Group Stages ended today. A couple of the group toppers that would make the next knockout rounds are the usual “big boys” of European football, such as Barcelona in Group G and Manchester United in Group H.

But the other six group toppers might surprise you. As they stand today, the group toppers in Groups A â€" F are Porto, Schalke 04, Malaga, Borussia Dortmund, Shakhtar and Valencia.
Looking back to when the Champions League draw was first completed, half of these teams weren’t even fancied to make the knockout rounds, let alone top their groups. Malaga, for example, competing in the Champions League for the first time ever, were expected to be overwhelmed by the more experienced AC Milan and Zenit St. Petersburg.
Borussia Dortmund was expected to edged out by Real Madrid and Manchester City to the knockout rounds, as was Shakhtar by Chelsea and Juventus.
Yet here we are, with many of the richer, big name clubs sitting on the edge of elimination or, even worse, on the outside looking in. The question is this: Is this all a fluke, or a sign of change?

Martin G. Demichelis (R) of Malaga CF celebrates victory with teammates Ignacio Camacho (L) and Jesus Gamez (2ndL) (Photo by Gonzalo Arroyo Moreno/Getty Images)

It’s true that we’re only halfway through the group stage, and that over the next three games, the big teams will likely fight harder than they have and as a result push at least one of the current underdogs out of their top group spot. But even so, it must be admitted that the results we’ve seen so far are a bit of an anomaly.
Let’s roll the clock back two years ago, to the 2010/11 Champions League season. After three games, the Group toppers in Group A â€" H, respectively were Internazionale, Lyon, Manchester United, Barcelona, Bayern Munich, Chelsea, Real Madrid and Arsenal. In each and every group, the group leader at the midway point was either the strongest “traditional heavyweight” in the group or closely tied with another team for that title. In short, their dominance over the competition in their group was hardly surprising.
The year before, it was a similar story. Aside from a particularly inspired Bordeaux side, lead by Yoann Gourcuff and Marouane Chamakh, and managed by future France manager Laurent Blanc, and a strong showing by Fiorentina, the usual suspects dominated at the midway group of the group stage.
But last year, we saw the trend begin to change. At the midway point, Benfica topped Group C ahead of Manchester United halfway through, APOEL topped Porto, Zenit and Shakhtar, and both Chelsea and Arsenal were given a run for their money. And looking at the results so far in this year’s Champions League, it appears the trend of unexpected results has continued.

Yoann Gourcuff (L) and Marouane Chamakh (R) of Bordeaux March, 2010 (Photo by Michael Steele/Getty Images)

But what does it all mean?
One could of course say it all means nothing. At the end of the day, the big teams are the ones who get through, they’re the ones who push on to the semis, and they’re the ones who fight for the trophy. Such critics have some support too; it’s not been since 2003-04 that a real Champions League minnow has made the Champions League final.
But, on the other hand, one could make the statement that these trends very much support the conclusion that Champions League success simply cannot be bought. And there is ample evidence to support this. Especially with the likes of PSG and Manchester City, we’ve seen that though money will bring them a great deal of domestic success, the pressure-cooker atmosphere of the Champions League can often test a manager’s tactics and strategy to its limits and cause these star-studded, financially rich teams to unravel against teams with good team chemistry and unity.
In the latter stages of the tournament, we’ve also seen this be the case. Chelsea’s most recent Champions League victory is evidence of this. In Chelsea’s glory years of domestic football, when they brought their competition in the EPL to their knees, they were never able to secure the Champions League title. It took Roberto Di Matteo’s charisma, and his ability to unite his experienced players so closely for a common goal, as well as some super-clutchness from Didier Drogba, to finally win the ultimate football honor in club football.
Only time will tell whether we’re seeing a real transition in world football to where results are unpredictable and the top teams no longer easily dominate those below them. But for now, I offer this proposition: Building on last years’ surprise results, this year’s results do indicate that a shift is indeed taking place.
The shift, however, is not so drastic as to flip the established order of world football or even unseat the current top clubs in Europe. Rather, it is a subtle shift; one in which the biggest clubs are not necessarily getting weaker, but the second-tier clubs are playing to their strengths, coming up with ways to chip away at the bigger clubs, and ultimately performing better.
The result? Only a team that has the whole package, i.e. tactics, strategy, flexibility, chemistry, unity, talent, creativity and poise will be able to push all the way in the Champions League. Teams that attempt to push forward without one or more of these components simply won’t be successful, and will fall, sooner or later.
If you ask me, that’s the way it should be. For all the things wrong with European football, and all the ways that money has corrupted the beautiful game, and created widely different classes of teams, the Champions League gives us a happy, positive reminder that even today, it takes much more than a bunch of good players to win the club football’s ultimate prize.
Follow @Mo_Hendy
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